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Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for Summer (June-August) 2024


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
normal to above-normal temperature
2.
normal to below-normal rainfall



Assessment (as of 31 May 2024):
  1. In the past month or so, El Niño continued to weaken. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the El Niño is transitioning to the ENSO-neutral state. Subsequently, sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue to decrease, indicating that La Niña may start to develop in the latter half of 2024.

  2. Against the backdrop of climate warming, summer temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The chance of normal to above-normal temperature is generally higher. Besides, the majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for summer 2024. Hence, the temperature of summer 2024 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal.

  3. Taking into consideration the transition from the El Niño to the ENSO-neutral state, objective guidance and statistical analyses of past performance of climate models, the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for summer 2024 is expected to be slightly higher. However, Hong Kong may still be affected by heavy rain. Members of the public are reminded to be prepared for the rain season.


Note:
  1. Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observaory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.

  2. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.

  3. Seasonal Forecast for July-September 2024 will be available around 1st July 2024.


 
Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)