Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for Winter 2025/26 (December 2025-February 2026)

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	normal to above-normal temperature
2.	normal to below-normal rainfall

Assessment (as of 28 November 2025):

In the first half of November 2025, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and became colder than normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to remain colder than normal in the next couple of months. In early 2026, the region will warm up gradually and the sea surface temperatures of the region are expected to return to near normal.
Against the backdrop of climate warming, winter temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for winter 2025/26. The temperature of winter 2025/26 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal. Nevertheless, day-to-day fluctuations in weather and temperatures can still be quite large with occasional cold weather. It is expected that the number of cold days in this winter would be near-normal. (Remark: Cold weather refers to temperatures falling to 12 degrees or below. The normal range of the number of cold days in winter is 9-17.)
Taking into consideration of the latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for winter 2025/26 is expected to be higher.

Note:

Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observaory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.
The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.
Seasonal Forecast for January-March 2026 will be available around 1st January 2026.

Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)