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Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for February-April 2024


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
normal to above-normal temperature
2.
normal to above-normal rainfall



Assessment (as of 31 January 2024):
  1. In the past month or so, El Niño continued with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the El Niño is expected to weaken gradually, transitioning to the ENSO-neutral state by end of spring or start of summer this year.

  2. Against the backdrop of climate warming, February-April temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The chance of normal to above-normal temperature is generally higher. Besides, the majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for February-April 2024. Hence, the temperature of February-April 2024 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal.

  3. Statistical analysis reveals that, in February-April, the chance of normal to above-normal rainfall in Hong Kong is generally higher during El Niño. Besides, the majority of climate models around the world forecast more moisture transport to the coast of southern China in February-April 2024. Hence, the rainfall of February-April 2024 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal.


Note:
  1. Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observaory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.

  2. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.

  3. Seasonal Forecast for Spring (March-May) 2024 will be available around 1st March 2024.


 
Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)