Seasonal Forecast

Seasonal Forecast for Winter 2024/25 (December 2024-February 2025)

Hong Kong is expecting:

1.	normal to above-normal temperature
2.	near-normal rainfall

Assessment (as of 29 November 2024):

In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were near normal on the whole. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the cooling of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to continue for the next couple of months. The sea surface temperatures of the region are likely to be normal to below normal in winter 2024/25.
Against the backdrop of climate warming, winter temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for winter 2024/25. Hence, the temperature of winter 2024/25 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal. Although the average winter temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, day-to-day fluctuations in weather and temperature can still be quite large with occasional cold weather. It is expected that the number of cold days in this winter would be near-normal. (Remark: Cold weather refers to temperature falling to 12℃ or below. The normal range of winter cold days is 9-17.)
Taking into consideration the past performance of climate models around the world, the latest ENSO status and its impact on winter temperatures in Hong Kong, the chance of near-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for winter 2024/25 is expected to be slightly higher.

Note:

Climate prediction centres around the world generate seasonal forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. Predictions from different centres do not always agree and large discrepancies can occur at times. To formulate seasonal forecasts for Hong Kong, the Observaory takes into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres, past performance of climate models, and impacts of El Niño/La Niña, etc.
The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast for Hong Kong.
Seasonal Forecast for January-March 2025 will be available around 1st January 2025.

Seasonal forecast charts provided by major climate centres:

For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)