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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for November 2025


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to below-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. The subtropical ridge will extend westward over the coast of southern China and northern part of the South China Sea in the first part of November 2025, favourable for tropical cyclone developed over the western North Pacific entering the South China Sea.

  2. The northeast monsoon and its replenishments are expected to prevail over the coast of southern China for most of the time of November.

Assessment (as of 31 October 2025):
  1. In the past month or so, sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continued to cool gradually. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue cooling in the next couple of months, with a possibility of briefly transitioning to La Niña conditions during the rest of this autumn and the winter 2025/26.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of November 2025 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in the month will be slightly higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for December 2025 will be available around 1st December 2025.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)