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Monthly Forecast

Monthly Forecast for December 2025


Hong Kong is expecting:
1.
 normal to above-normal temperature
2.
 normal to below-normal rainfall



Additional information:
  1. Northeast monsoon and its replenishment are expected to bring a dry continental airstream to the coast of southern China for most of the time in December 2025. Rainfall over that region is expected to be normal to below-normal.

Assessment (as of 28 November 2025):
  1. In the first half of November 2025, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and became colder than normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to remain colder than normal in the next couple of months. In early 2026, the region will warm up gradually and the sea surface temperatures of the region are expected to return to near normal.

  2. Taking into consideration of the impacts of global warming and latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the temperature of December 2025 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above-normal, and the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in the month will be higher.


Note:
  1. The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of monthly forecast for Hong Kong.

  2. Monthly Forecast for January 2026 will be available around 1st January 2026.

  3. Monthly mean temperature and rainfall categorical forecasts charts.

  4. Ten days constitute a "ten-day period," and three such periods make up a month. The first ten days of each month are called “the first part of the month”, the second ten days are “the middle part of the month”, and the remaining days are referred to as “the latter part of the month”.

 
Monthly forecast charts provided by major climate centres:
Related links:
| Seasonal forecast | Annual outlook | El Niño and La Niña | Climate change |
For further information on this webpage, please contact Mr. W P Tse (tel:2926 8012, email:wptse@hko.gov.hk)