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Annual mean temperature projection for Hong Kong

Annual mean temperature projection for Hong Kong

Mean sea level

Temperature

Rainfall

Annual mean
temperature

Annual maximum
temperature

Annual minimum
temperature


Compared to the average of 1995-2014 [Note] (23.4℃, at the reference station Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)), the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong in 2081-2100 is projected to increase by about 2.0℃ and 3.6℃ respectively under the intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

figure
Projected change in annual mean temperature of Hong Kong relative to the average of 1995-2014 under the intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. (Data source: IPCC AR6)


» Annual mean temperature projection data

» Observed temperature change


With unabating greenhouse gas emissions, the annual number of hot nights (days with a minimum temperature of 28°C or above) and very hot days (days with a maximum temperature of 33°C or above) are expected to increase significantly in the 21st century, while the annual number of cold days (days with a minimum temperature of 12°C or below) is expected to drop. Projections based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report can be found here. Update of projections of hot nights, very hot days and cold days will commence when relevant AR6 climate model data are available.


» Observed change in extreme weather events


Note: AR6 adopted the 20-year period 1995-2014 in the recent past as a common reference period for climate projections of temperature, rainfall and mean sea level. Compared to the average of 1885-1904 (22.1℃, the earliest 20-year average instrumental temperature data available at HKO), the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong in 2081-2100 is projected to increase by about 3.3℃ and 4.9℃ respectively under the intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.

 

Data source:

Gutiérrez, J.M., R.G. Jones, G.T. Narisma, L.M. Alves, M. Amjad, I.V. Gorodetskaya, M. Grose, N.A.B. Klutse, S. Krakovska, J. Li, D. Martínez-Castro, L.O. Mearns, S.H. Mernild, T. Ngo-Duc, B. van den Hurk, and J.-H. Yoon, 2021: Atlas. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L.Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K.Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.
Interactive Atlas available from http://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/