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Climate Projections for Hong Kong - Mean sea level

Climate Projections for Hong Kong

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Mean sea level

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The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) published in September 2019 by IPCC has revised upward the global mean sea level rise projection. The mean sea level rise projections for Hong Kong and its adjacent waters are also revised based on the latest data provided by SROCC. Under the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario, the annual mean sea level in Hong Kong and its adjacent waters in 2091-2100 (with the effect of local vertical land displacement incorporated) are expected to rise by 0.73 - 1.28 m relative to the average of 1986-2005.

Projected changes in the mean sea level in Hong Kong and its adjacent waters

Projected changes in the mean sea level in Hong Kong and its adjacent waters (with the effect of local vertical land displacement incorporated) relative to the average of 1986-2005 under the high (red) and medium-low (orange) greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Solid lines plot the mean value while dashed lines show the likely range of projection results.


With rising sea level, the threat of storm surges brought by tropical cyclones will correspondingly increase (see diagrams below). Rare extreme sea level events nowadays will become more frequent. The situation could be even worse as the global mean tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase.

storm surges

 

» Climate projections under different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios