Latest assessment of the annual outlook for 2012

The annual outlook for 2012, issued by the Observatory in March, predicted the yearly rainfall to be normal to below normal and the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 km of Hong Kong to be between 5 and 8. These predictions are so far on track.

The rainfall recorded at the Observatory in January - August 2012 was 1545 mm, which is about 80% of the normal value of 1906 mm for the same period. Latest forecasts issued by climate prediction centres around the world indicate that southern China is likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall this autumn (please refer to http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/season/season.htm), suggesting that rainfall surplus in autumn may partly compensate the rainfall deficit in the first eight months in Hong Kong. Taking the above into consideration, the Observatory still expects the yearly rainfall of Hong Kong in 2012 to be normal to below normal.

Five tropical cyclones entered the 500 km range of Hong Kong in January - August 2012. They were Talim, Doksuri, Vicente, Kai-tak and Tembin. Latest information including climate model prediction and assessment of El Niño development indicates that the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 km of Hong Kong in September - December this year will be near normal, which is around 2.3 based on climatological records. Taking the above into consideration, the annual outlook issued in March 2012, that 5 - 8 tropical cyclones are expected to come within 500 km of Hong Kong in 2012, remains valid.

The annual outlook for 2012 is available at:
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/season/anlf.htm