Seasonal forecast for autumn 2012

The seasonal forecast for this autumn (September - November 2012) is now available at the following website:
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/season/season.htm

A number of the latest forecasts issued by climate prediction centres around the world indicate that southern China is expected to experience normal to below-normal temperature and normal to above-normal rainfall this autumn. On the other hand, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been warmer than normal since July this year. Majority of the climate models forecast the above-normal sea surface temperatures will persist in the next few months and the situation may develop into an El Niño event in the coming winter (December 2012 - February 2013) (please refer to http://www.hko.gov.hk/lrf/enso/enso-latest.htm). Statistically, under the condition of above-normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, Hong Kong is likely to experience slightly cooler autumns.

Taking the above into consideration, the Hong Kong Observatory expects Hong Kong to experience normal to below-normal temperature and normal to above-normal rainfall this autumn.