Seasonal forecast for winter 2011/2012
7 December 2011
The seasonal forecast for this winter (December 2011 - February 2012) is now available at the following website:
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/season/season.htm
http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/season/season.htm
The latest forecasts issued by major climate prediction centres around the world indicate that the northeast monsoon over southern China is likely to be stronger than normal this winter. On the other hand, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have been cooler than normal since this September. Most climate models forecast the establishment of a La Niña event in early 2012 (please refer to http://www.hko.gov.hk/lrf/enso/enso-latest.htm). Observation data of recent decades show that during La Niña winters, Hong Kong usually experienced normal to below-normal temperatures and rainfall.
Taking the above into consideration, the Hong Kong Observatory expects the average temperature and total rainfall of Hong Kong in this winter (December 2011 - February 2012) to be normal to below normal.