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Tropical Cyclones in 2018 > Table 4.12

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2018

Table 4.12    Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2018

Name of tropical cyclone
Code
Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
120-hour forecast position
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Sanba 1802 T.S. 102 7 48 3 80 1 - - - -
Jelawat 1803 SuperT. 95 13 202 11 283 9 405 6 412 4
Ewiniar 1804 T.S. 83 22 111 18 204 14 249 10 366 6
Maliksi 1805 S.T.S. 63 8 99 6 272 3 - - - -
Gaemi 1806 T.S. 255 4 - - - - - - - -
Prapiroon 1807 T. 120 12 313 9 617 1 - - - -
Maria 1808 SuperT. 46 9 58 5 67 3 - - - -
Son-Tinh 1809 T.S. 51 16 96 6 - - - - - -
Ampil 1810 S.T.S. 79 10 134 8 206 4 295 2 522 1
Jongdari 1812 T. 92 16 173 14 171 12 315 10 517 8
Yagi 1814 T.S. 101 16 172 12 313 9 422 7 431 5
Leepi 1815 S.T.S. 229 5 416 1 - - - - - -
Bebinca 1816 S.T.S. 89 28 119 24 202 20 345 14 349 11
Rumbia 1818 T.S. 59 7 126 5 - - - - - -
Soulik 1819 S.T. 42 12 83 10 145 8 282 5 693 3
Cimaron 1820 S.T. 83 3 174 1 - - - - - -
Mangkhut 1822 SuperT. 34 17 62 13 109 9 129 5 168 3
Barijat 1823 T.S. 36 9 75 5 137 1 - - - -
Trami 1824 SuperT. 43 15 68 13 95 11 191 9 406 7
Kong-rey 1825 SuperT. 52 13 110 11 232 9 435 7 699 5
Yutu 1826 SuperT. 31 27 64 23 111 19 166 15 170 11
Toraji 1827 T.D. 134 1 - - - - - - - -
Man-yi 1828 T. 107 15 189 11 188 7 141 3 - -
Usagi 1829 S.T.S. 73 20 102 16 111 12 178 8 230 4
Pabuk 1901 T.S. 81 4 60 4 117 4 158 2 141 2
Tropical Depression (21-23 Jul) - T.D. 81 4 - - - - - - - -
Tropical Depression (23-25 Aug) - T.D. 34 4 - - - 0 - - - -
Tropical Depression (25 - 30 Dec) - T.D. 168 14 311 10 414 6 334 2 - -
Average Error 79 129 185 272 378
Total number of forecasts 331 239 162 105 70

Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.