Tropical Cyclones in 2018 > Table 4.12
Table 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2018
Name of tropical cyclone |
Code |
Max Intensity |
24-hour forecast position |
48-hour forecast position |
72-hour forecast position |
96-hour forecast position |
120-hour forecast position |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
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Sanba | 1802 | T.S. | 102 | 7 | 48 | 3 | 80 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Jelawat | 1803 | SuperT. | 95 | 13 | 202 | 11 | 283 | 9 | 405 | 6 | 412 | 4 |
Ewiniar | 1804 | T.S. | 83 | 22 | 111 | 18 | 204 | 14 | 249 | 10 | 366 | 6 |
Maliksi | 1805 | S.T.S. | 63 | 8 | 99 | 6 | 272 | 3 | - | - | - | - |
Gaemi | 1806 | T.S. | 255 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Prapiroon | 1807 | T. | 120 | 12 | 313 | 9 | 617 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Maria | 1808 | SuperT. | 46 | 9 | 58 | 5 | 67 | 3 | - | - | - | - |
Son-Tinh | 1809 | T.S. | 51 | 16 | 96 | 6 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Ampil | 1810 | S.T.S. | 79 | 10 | 134 | 8 | 206 | 4 | 295 | 2 | 522 | 1 |
Jongdari | 1812 | T. | 92 | 16 | 173 | 14 | 171 | 12 | 315 | 10 | 517 | 8 |
Yagi | 1814 | T.S. | 101 | 16 | 172 | 12 | 313 | 9 | 422 | 7 | 431 | 5 |
Leepi | 1815 | S.T.S. | 229 | 5 | 416 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bebinca | 1816 | S.T.S. | 89 | 28 | 119 | 24 | 202 | 20 | 345 | 14 | 349 | 11 |
Rumbia | 1818 | T.S. | 59 | 7 | 126 | 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Soulik | 1819 | S.T. | 42 | 12 | 83 | 10 | 145 | 8 | 282 | 5 | 693 | 3 |
Cimaron | 1820 | S.T. | 83 | 3 | 174 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Mangkhut | 1822 | SuperT. | 34 | 17 | 62 | 13 | 109 | 9 | 129 | 5 | 168 | 3 |
Barijat | 1823 | T.S. | 36 | 9 | 75 | 5 | 137 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Trami | 1824 | SuperT. | 43 | 15 | 68 | 13 | 95 | 11 | 191 | 9 | 406 | 7 |
Kong-rey | 1825 | SuperT. | 52 | 13 | 110 | 11 | 232 | 9 | 435 | 7 | 699 | 5 |
Yutu | 1826 | SuperT. | 31 | 27 | 64 | 23 | 111 | 19 | 166 | 15 | 170 | 11 |
Toraji | 1827 | T.D. | 134 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Man-yi | 1828 | T. | 107 | 15 | 189 | 11 | 188 | 7 | 141 | 3 | - | - |
Usagi | 1829 | S.T.S. | 73 | 20 | 102 | 16 | 111 | 12 | 178 | 8 | 230 | 4 |
Pabuk | 1901 | T.S. | 81 | 4 | 60 | 4 | 117 | 4 | 158 | 2 | 141 | 2 |
Tropical Depression (21-23 Jul) | - | T.D. | 81 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (23-25 Aug) | - | T.D. | 34 | 4 | - | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (25 - 30 Dec) | - | T.D. | 168 | 14 | 311 | 10 | 414 | 6 | 334 | 2 | - | - |
Average Error | 79 | 129 | 185 | 272 | 378 | |||||||
Total number of forecasts | 331 | 239 | 162 | 105 | 70 |
Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.