Tropical Cyclones in 2017 > Table 4.12
Table 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2017
Name of tropical cyclone |
Code |
Max Intensity |
24-hour forecast position |
48-hour forecast position |
72-hour forecast position |
96-hour forecast position |
120-hour forecast position |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
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Muifa | 1701 | T.D. | 188 | 5 | 281 | 3 | 341 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Merbok | 1702 | S.T.S. | 87 | 6 | 53 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Nanmadol | 1703 | S.T.S. | 97 | 7 | 231 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Talas | 1704 | S.T.S. | 64 | 6 | 196 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Noru | 1705 | SuperT. | 74 | 16 | 131 | 14 | 214 | 12 | 317 | 10 | 390 | 8 |
Roke | 1707 | T.S. | 42 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Sonca | 1708 | T.S. | 111 | 12 | 195 | 8 | 234 | 4 | - | - | - | - |
Nesat | 1709 | T. | 94 | 12 | 155 | 8 | 290 | 4 | 752 | 2 | - | - |
Haitang | 1710 | T.S. | 85 | 10 | 87 | 6 | 109 | 2 | - | - | - | - |
Hato | 1713 | SuperT. | 88 | 14 | 154 | 10 | 225 | 6 | 390 | 2 | - | - |
Pakhar | 1714 | S.T.S. | 89 | 9 | 190 | 5 | 150 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Mawar | 1716 | S.T.S. | 65 | 12 | 77 | 8 | 145 | 4 | - | - | - | - |
Guchol | 1717 | T.D. | 49 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Talim | 1718 | SuperT. | 67 | 24 | 145 | 22 | 276 | 19 | 343 | 15 | 469 | 10 |
Doksuri | 1719 | S.T. | 81 | 13 | 202 | 9 | 445 | 5 | 1103 | 1 | - | - |
Khanun | 1720 | S.T. | 76 | 14 | 128 | 10 | 157 | 6 | 162 | 2 | - | - |
Lan | 1721 | SuperT. | 78 | 17 | 137 | 15 | 193 | 11 | 319 | 9 | 252 | 7 |
Saola | 1722 | T. | 85 | 10 | 238 | 7 | 412 | 5 | 427 | 3 | 381 | 1 |
Damrey | 1723 | T. | 56 | 12 | 105 | 8 | 107 | 4 | - | - | - | - |
Haikui | 1724 | T.S. | 66 | 8 | 87 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kirogi | 1725 | T.S. | 78 | 5 | 64 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kai-Tak | 1726 | T.S. | 66 | 24 | 83 | 19 | 142 | 17 | 196 | 13 | 244 | 9 |
Tembin | 1727 | T. | 80 | 16 | 136 | 8 | 207 | 6 | 262 | 4 | 313 | 2 |
Tropical Depression (8-10 Jan) | - | T.D. | 62 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (14-17 Apr) | - | T.D. | 155 | 8 | 180 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (23-25 Sep) | - | T.D. | 53 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (9-10 Oct) | - | T.D. | 62 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tropical Depression (31 Oct - 2 Nov) | - | T.D. | 41 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Average Error | 81 | 142 | 224 | 324 | 345 | |||||||
Total number of forecasts | 273 | 177 | 107 | 61 | 37 |
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.