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Tropical Cyclones in 2017 > Table 4.12

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2017

Table 4.12    Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2017

Name of tropical cyclone
Code
Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
120-hour forecast position
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Muifa 1701 T.D. 188 5 281 3 341 1 - - - -
Merbok 1702 S.T.S. 87 6 53 2 - - - - - -
Nanmadol 1703 S.T.S. 97 7 231 4 - - - - - -
Talas 1704 S.T.S. 64 6 196 2 - - - - - -
Noru 1705 SuperT. 74 16 131 14 214 12 317 10 390 8
Roke 1707 T.S. 42 1 - - - - - - - -
Sonca 1708 T.S. 111 12 195 8 234 4 - - - -
Nesat 1709 T. 94 12 155 8 290 4 752 2 - -
Haitang 1710 T.S. 85 10 87 6 109 2 - - - -
Hato 1713 SuperT. 88 14 154 10 225 6 390 2 - -
Pakhar 1714 S.T.S. 89 9 190 5 150 1 - - - -
Mawar 1716 S.T.S. 65 12 77 8 145 4 - - - -
Guchol 1717 T.D. 49 2 - - - - - - - -
Talim 1718 SuperT. 67 24 145 22 276 19 343 15 469 10
Doksuri 1719 S.T. 81 13 202 9 445 5 1103 1 - -
Khanun 1720 S.T. 76 14 128 10 157 6 162 2 - -
Lan 1721 SuperT. 78 17 137 15 193 11 319 9 252 7
Saola 1722 T. 85 10 238 7 412 5 427 3 381 1
Damrey 1723 T. 56 12 105 8 107 4 - - - -
Haikui 1724 T.S. 66 8 87 4 - - - - - -
Kirogi 1725 T.S. 78 5 64 1 - - - - - -
Kai-Tak 1726 T.S. 66 24 83 19 142 17 196 13 244 9
Tembin 1727 T. 80 16 136 8 207 6 262 4 313 2
Tropical Depression (8-10 Jan) - T.D. 62 3 - - - - - - - -
Tropical Depression (14-17 Apr) - T.D. 155 8 180 4 - - - - - -
Tropical Depression (23-25 Sep) - T.D. 53 4 - - - - - - - -
Tropical Depression (9-10 Oct) - T.D. 62 1 - - - - - - - -
Tropical Depression (31 Oct - 2 Nov) - T.D. 41 2 - - - - - - - -
Average Error 81 142 224 324 345
Total number of forecasts 273 177 107 61 37

1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.