Annual minimum temperature projection data for Hong Kong with more details
Annual minimum temperature projection data for Hong Kong with more details |
Following the information provided by the IPCC Interactive Atlas, the Observatory acquired additional data from a number of global climate models that underpin the IPCC Interactive Atlas. Based on this set of climate model data (as at July 2022), a complete set of temperature projections for Hong Kong, including likely range of projection, is computed and shown in the table below. It should be noted that the projections for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 may be slightly different from the initial projections released in December 2021.
Projected change in 20-year average of annual minimum temperature of Hong Kong relative to 1995-2014 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Average annual minimum temperature at the Hong Kong Observatory during 1995-2014 is 7.9℃. It should be noted that temperature exhibits regional variation.
| Low SSP1-2.6 |
Intermediate SSP2-4.5 |
High SSP3-7.0 |
Very high SSP5-8.5 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | |
| 2021-2040 | 1.0 | 0.4 – 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 – 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 – 1.6 | 0.9 | -0.2 – 1.6 |
| 2031-2050 | 1.2 | 0.5 – 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 – 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 – 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 – 2.2 |
| 2041-2060 | 1.3 | 0.6 – 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 – 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 – 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 – 2.8 |
| 2051-2070 | 1.5 | 0.6 – 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 – 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 – 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 – 3.1 |
| 2061-2080 | 1.6 | 0.9 – 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 – 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 – 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.3 – 4.2 |
| 2071-2090 | 1.7 | 0.8 – 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 – 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.8 – 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 – 4.8 |
| 2081-2100 | 1.6 | 0.9 – 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 – 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.1 – 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 – 5.6 |
The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. Data source: WCRP CMIP6 (not IPCC Interactive Atlas)