Annual mean temperature projection data for Hong Kong with more details
Annual mean temperature projection data for Hong Kong with more details |
Following the information provided by the IPCC Interactive Atlas, the Observatory acquired additional data from a number of global climate models that underpin the IPCC Interactive Atlas. Based on this set of climate model data (as at July 2022), a complete set of temperature projections for Hong Kong, including likely range of projection, is computed and shown in the table below. It should be noted that the projections for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 may be slightly different from the initial projections released in December 2021.
Projected change in 20-year average of annual mean temperature of Hong Kong relative to 1995-2014 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Average annual mean temperature at the Hong Kong Observatory during 1995-2014 is 23.4℃. It should be noted that temperature exhibits regional variation.
| Low SSP1-2.6 |
Intermediate SSP2-4.5 |
High SSP3-7.0 |
Very high SSP5-8.5 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | Mean (℃) | Likely range (℃) | |
| 2021-2040 | 0.8 | 0.5 – 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 – 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 – 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 – 1.3 |
| 2031-2050 | 1.0 | 0.6 – 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 – 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 – 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 – 1.8 |
| 2041-2060 | 1.1 | 0.6 – 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 – 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 – 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 – 2.3 |
| 2051-2070 | 1.2 | 0.7 – 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 – 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 – 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 – 2.9 |
| 2061-2080 | 1.3 | 0.7 – 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 – 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 – 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 – 3.7 |
| 2071-2090 | 1.3 | 0.7 – 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.2 – 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 – 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.0 – 4.3 |
| 2081-2100 | 1.2 | 0.6 – 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 – 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 – 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 – 5.0 |
The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. Data source: WCRP CMIP6 (not IPCC Interactive Atlas)