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Global Climate Projections - Temperature

Global Climate Projections

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Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered in IPCC AR6. Global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.

Compared to 1850–1900, the global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0-1.8℃, 2.1-3.5℃ and 3.3-5.7℃ under the very low (SSP1-1.9), intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios respectively.

Global surface temperature change relative to 1850–1900

Global surface temperature change relative to 1850–1900. The black curve shows historical simulation (multi-model annual average). Coloured curves show projections (multi-model 20-year average) under different emissions scenarios. Very likely ranges of SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios are shown by coloured shading. (Image credit: IPCC AR6)



Image credit:

Figure SPM.8 Panel a) from IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson- Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.