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Global Climate Projections - Mean Sea Level

Global Climate Projections


Mean sea level

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The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) published in September 2019 by IPCC has revised upward the global mean sea level rise projection. Under the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario, global mean sea level in 2100 is projected to be 0.84 m above the average of 1986-2005, which is 0.1 m higher than the projection given by the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

Global mean sea level rise

Global mean sea level rise projections in SROCC and AR5 (relative to 1986-2005). The solid coloured lines represent the multi-model medians under RCP2.6(left), RCP4.5(middle) and RCP8.5(right) scenarios, with shading indicating the likely range. The coloured vertical bars on the right show the likely ranges in 2100, with the median value given as a horizontal line. (Source: SROCC)

Projected regional mean sea level rise

Projected regional mean sea level rise for 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 (relative to 1986-2005) under different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (Source: SROCC)