Seasonal forecast for winter 2025/26

28 November 2025

In the first half of November 2025, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific cooled and became colder than normal. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to remain colder than normal in the next couple of months. In early 2026, the region will warm up gradually and the sea surface temperatures of the region are expected to return to near normal.

Against the backdrop of climate warming, winter temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term increasing trend. The majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for winter 2025/26. The temperature of winter 2025/26 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal. Nevertheless, day-to-day fluctuations in weather and temperatures can still be quite large with occasional cold weather. It is expected that the number of cold days in this winter would be near-normal [1].

Taking into consideration of the latest ENSO status, different climate model forecasts and other objective forecast guidance, the chance of normal to below-normal rainfall in Hong Kong for winter 2025/26 is expected to be higher.

The seasonal forecast for Hong Kong is available at this website.

Temperature forecast chart for winter 2025/26 based on the average of a few global climate models.
The unit of values displayed in the legend is standard deviation (σ). Blue is negative anomaly, indicating temperatures below normal. Red is positive anomaly, indicating temperatures above normal.

[1] Cold weather refers to temperatures falling to 12 degrees or below. Based on the historical records of the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1991 to 2020, the normal range of the number of cold days in winter is 9-17.