Seasonal forecast for winter 2023/24

1 December 2023

In the past month or so, El Niño continued with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on the latest oceanic observations as well as forecasts by a number of climate models around the world, the El Niño is expected to persist in winter 2023/24 and spring 2024.

Against the backdrop of climate warming, winter temperatures in Hong Kong exhibit a significant long-term rising trend. The majority of climate models around the world forecast normal to above-normal temperature over southern China for winter 2023/24. Hence, the temperature of winter 2023/24 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal. Although the average winter temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal, day-to-day fluctuations in weather and temperature can still be quite large with occasional cold weather. It is expected that the number of cold days in this winter would likely be less than that in the previous winter. (Remark: Cold weather refers to temperature falling to 12℃ or below. The normal range of winter cold days is 9-17. The number of cold days in the previous winter was 13.)

Statistical analysis reveals that the chance of normal to above-normal winter rainfall in Hong Kong is generally higher during El Niño. Besides, the majority of climate models around the world forecast more moisture transport to the coast of southern China in winter 2023/24. Hence, the rainfall of winter 2023/24 in Hong Kong is expected to be normal to above normal.

The seasonal forecast for Hong Kong is available at this website.