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A Brief Description of Forecast Methodology

Climate prediction centres around the world generate long-range forecasts, employing a variety of methods including dynamical models, statistical methods, expert judgment and combinations of them. The Observatory adopts an ensemble approach to formulate its seasonal forecast and annual outlook for Hong Kong, taking into consideration available products from major climate prediction centres and the Global-Regional Climate Model (G-RCM) operated in house.

Acknowledgement: The Observatory gratefully acknowledges the Tokyo Climate Center of the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA for providing dynamical prediction model forecast and hindcast data to support the formulation of seasonal forecast and annual outlook for Hong Kong.

More details on seasonal forecasting (see use and interpretation) for Hong Kong and G-RCM can be found at the following papers:

1. The Impact of Long-range Temperature Forecasts on Electricity Load Forecasting

2. Probabilistic Forecasts for Annual Mean Temperature Reaching the Highest Top 10 and Top 5 Positions

3. A Consensus Approach in Predicting Spring and Summer Rainfall in Hong Kong

4. A Consensus Winter Temperature Forecast for the Pearl River Delta Region

5. Adaptation of Global and Regional Spectral Model for Seasonal Forecasting (in Chinese only)

Last revision date: <26 Mar 2019>