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System (GIS) version
 
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 Track Probability Forecast Track Probability
Forecast




Low Pressure Area (Former MANGKHUT)
at 20:00 HKT 17 September 2018


Position: 24.3 N, 106.4 E (about 830 km west-northwest of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 40 km/h

Tropical Cyclone Track at 20:00 HKT 17 September 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 20:00 HKT 17 September 2018


( Past Positions and Intensities )


Notes

  • Tropical cyclones centred within the area bounded by 7-36N and 100-140E will be shown on this website. According to the analysed position of the tropical cyclone and the tropical cyclone warning signal in force, the update time of this webpage and the information shown will be different. Details are listed in the table below:

    Tropical cyclone
    situation
    Tropical Cyclone
    Warning Signal
    No.1 or above
    in force
    No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal in force
    Tropical cyclones
    centred within the
    area bounded by 10N
    and 30N, 105E and 125E.*
    Other tropical cyclones
    centred within the
    area bounded by 7N
    and 36N,100E and
    140E.**
    Update time
    [Observation time]
    (Hong Kong time)
    Every hour
    [Every hour]
     00:30 [23:00
     03:30 [02:00
     06:30 [05:00
     09:30 [08:00
     12:30 [11:00
     15:30 [14:00
     18:30 [17:00
     21:30 [20:00
    10:00 [08:00]
    22:00 [20:00]
    - Track
    - Analysed position
    - Maximum sustained wind near centre
    - Uncertainty of the track
       
    - Distance and bearing from Hong Kong    

    *The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory's tropical cyclone warning for shipping.
    **When the tropical cyclone is expected to enter the area bounded by 10N and 30N, 105E and 125E in about 24 hours, the Observatory will also update the tropical cyclone track at 04:00 and 16:00 Hong Kong time (corresponding to the observation time at 02:00 and 14:00 respectively).

  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% ('Potential Track Area'). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the 'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:

    Analysed Position30 km
    24-hour forecast position125 km
    48-hour forecast position225 km
    72-hour forecast position325 km
    96-hour forecast position400 km
    120-hour forecast position500 km

  • In order to show the forecast track and intensity category of the tropical cyclone clearly, the track maps on this webpage may only display the time labels of some positions of the tropical cyclone. Users can visit the Geographical Information System (GIS) version of the webpage to display all the time labels on an interactive map.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.
Last revision date: <17 Sep 2018>