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TC Track Probability Forecast

28 July 2020

The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) enhances its “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” service today (28 July 2020). When a tropical cyclone is named in the western North Pacific between 140 degrees east longitude and 180 degrees east longitude, the “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” webpage will provide a forecast within a few hours to show the probability of the tropical cyclone track in the coming nine days (Figure 1). This enables members of the public to appraise the trend of tropical cyclone movement and be better prepared.

The “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” is automatically generated by computer using data from ensemble prediction system of weather models. The forecast will be updated once a day around noon. The public can get access to the “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” from its website, HKO’s homepage, or “MyObservatory” mobile app.

Figure 1. The “Tropical Cyclone Track Probability Forecast” for named tropical cyclones originating between 140°E and 180°E.