How many people died and how many more are likely to die in the future?

The total number of actual deaths and expected deaths in the future attributable to Chernobyl is estimated to be about 4,000. This includes some 50 emergency workers who died of acute radiation syndrome and 9 children who died of thyroid cancer, and an estimated total of 3,940 deaths from radiation-induced cancer and leukaemia among about 600,000 people who were exposed to higher radiation dose in the accident. They were the 200,000 emergency workers from 1986-1987, 116,000 evacuees and 270,000 residents of the most contaminated areas.

This estimation of death toll is much fewer than figures quoted in other reports or analyses published before. According to the authoritative analyses quoted in the references, in the years since 1986, thousands of the above-mentioned people, having been exposed to relatively higher radiation dose in the accident, have died of diverse natural causes that are not attributable to radiation. Confusion about the impact of Chernobyl on mortality has arisen. However, expectations of ill health and attribution of health problems to radiation exposure have led local residents to assume much higher Chernobyl-related fatalities than the figure arrived at scientifically.