Tropical Cyclones in 2020 > Table 4.12
Table 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2020
Name of tropical cyclone |
Code |
Max Intensity |
24-hour forecast position |
48-hour forecast position |
72-hour forecast position |
96-hour forecast position |
120-hour forecast position |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
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| Vongfong | 2001 | S.T | 94 | 23 | 99 | 19 | 138 | 15 | 181 | 11 | 242 | 7 |
| Nuri | 2002 | T.S. | 31 | 7 | 55 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sinlaku | 2003 | T.S. | 56 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Hagupit | 2004 | T. | 46 | 13 | 69 | 6 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jangmi | 2005 | T.S. | 61 | 5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mekkhala | 2006 | T. | 105 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Higos | 2007 | T. | 132 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Bavi | 2008 | S.T. | 49 | 19 | 44 | 15 | 101 | 11 | 183 | 7 | 372 | 3 |
| Maysak | 2009 | SuperT. | 56 | 20 | 79 | 16 | 94 | 12 | 92 | 8 | 152 | 4 |
| Haishen | 2010 | SuperT. | 54 | 16 | 115 | 12 | 175 | 8 | 230 | 4 | - | - |
| Noul | 2011 | T.S. | 92 | 8 | 172 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dolphin | 2012 | S.T.S. | 224 | 9 | 445 | 5 | 612 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Chan-Hom | 2014 | T. | 84 | 24 | 184 | 20 | 347 | 16 | 414 | 12 | 411 | 8 |
| Linfa | 2015 | T.S. | 82 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nangka | 2016 | T.S. | 54 | 9 | 108 | 5 | 195 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
| Saudel | 2017 | T. | 54 | 22 | 79 | 18 | 78 | 14 | 149 | 10 | 223 | 6 |
| Molave | 2018 | S.T. | 68 | 15 | 103 | 11 | 121 | 7 | 191 | 3 | - | - |
| Goni | 2019 | SuperT. | 62 | 31 | 124 | 26 | 175 | 21 | 207 | 16 | 261 | 15 |
| Atsani | 2020 | S.T.S. | 94 | 27 | 159 | 23 | 212 | 19 | 267 | 15 | 366 | 11 |
| Etau | 2021 | T.S. | 60 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Vamco | 2022 | S.T. | 42 | 22 | 56 | 18 | 69 | 13 | 89 | 10 | 139 | 6 |
| Krovanh | 2023 | T.D. | 97 | 7 | 91 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| T.D. (13-14 Jul) |
- | T.D. | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| T.D. (10-12 Aug) |
- | T.D. | 85 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Average Error | 72 | 116 | 164 | 210 | 280 | |||||||
| Average Error | 296 | 204 | 138 | 96 | 60 | |||||||
Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.