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Tropical Cyclones in 2019 > Table 4.12

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2019

Table 4.12    Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2019

Name of tropical cyclone
Code
Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
120-hour forecast position
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Average error
No. of forecasts
Wutip 1902 SuperT. 136 7 224 3 - - - - - -
Mun 1904 T.D. 93 3 - - - - - - - -
Danas 1905 T.S. 102 17 311 13 619 8 864 7 - -
Nari 1906 T.S. 79 8 109 4 - - - - - -
Wipha 1907 T.S. 59 14 76 10 99 6 158 1 - -
Francisco 1908 T. 51 8 115 4 - - - - - -
Lekima 1909 SuperT. 82 32 140 30 200 26 261 22 333 18
Krosa 1910 S.T. 47 17 64 12 67 9 91 5 43 1
Bailu 1911 S.T.S. 74 14 77 10 130 6 229 2 - -
Podul 1912 T.S. 134 9 310 5 616 1 - - - -
Lingling 1913 SuperT. 66 19 137 16 165 11 203 8 314 2
Kajiki 1914 T.D. 99 8 124 4 - - - - - -
Faxai 1915 S.T. 43 4 - - - - - - - -
Tapah 1917 T. 54 15 52 10 81 6 74 2 - -
Mitag 1918 T. 75 19 119 15 204 11 247 7 346 3
Hagibis 1919 SuperT. 83 12 151 8 143 4 - - - -
Neoguri 1920 S.T. 253 11 551 7 1173 3 - - - -
Matmo 1922 S.T.S. 38 6 77 2 - - - - - -
Nakri 1924 S.T.S. 45 20 71 16 96 12 126 8 161 4
Kalmaegi 1926 T. 138 26 188 22 292 18 396 14 469 10
Fung-wong 1927 S.T.S. 164 7 453 3 - - - - - -
Kammuri 1928 SuperT. 58 28 97 24 136 20 182 16 245 12
Phanfone 1929 T. 50 22 60 18 89 14 126 10 221 6
Average Error 84 144 205 265 309
Total number of forecasts 326 236 155 102 56

Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.