Tropical Cyclones in 2019 > Table 4.12
Table 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2019
Name of tropical cyclone |
Code |
Max Intensity |
24-hour forecast position |
48-hour forecast position |
72-hour forecast position |
96-hour forecast position |
120-hour forecast position |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
Average error |
No. of forecasts |
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Wutip | 1902 | SuperT. | 136 | 7 | 224 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Mun | 1904 | T.D. | 93 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Danas | 1905 | T.S. | 102 | 17 | 311 | 13 | 619 | 8 | 864 | 7 | - | - |
Nari | 1906 | T.S. | 79 | 8 | 109 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Wipha | 1907 | T.S. | 59 | 14 | 76 | 10 | 99 | 6 | 158 | 1 | - | - |
Francisco | 1908 | T. | 51 | 8 | 115 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Lekima | 1909 | SuperT. | 82 | 32 | 140 | 30 | 200 | 26 | 261 | 22 | 333 | 18 |
Krosa | 1910 | S.T. | 47 | 17 | 64 | 12 | 67 | 9 | 91 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
Bailu | 1911 | S.T.S. | 74 | 14 | 77 | 10 | 130 | 6 | 229 | 2 | - | - |
Podul | 1912 | T.S. | 134 | 9 | 310 | 5 | 616 | 1 | - | - | - | - |
Lingling | 1913 | SuperT. | 66 | 19 | 137 | 16 | 165 | 11 | 203 | 8 | 314 | 2 |
Kajiki | 1914 | T.D. | 99 | 8 | 124 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Faxai | 1915 | S.T. | 43 | 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tapah | 1917 | T. | 54 | 15 | 52 | 10 | 81 | 6 | 74 | 2 | - | - |
Mitag | 1918 | T. | 75 | 19 | 119 | 15 | 204 | 11 | 247 | 7 | 346 | 3 |
Hagibis | 1919 | SuperT. | 83 | 12 | 151 | 8 | 143 | 4 | - | - | - | - |
Neoguri | 1920 | S.T. | 253 | 11 | 551 | 7 | 1173 | 3 | - | - | - | - |
Matmo | 1922 | S.T.S. | 38 | 6 | 77 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Nakri | 1924 | S.T.S. | 45 | 20 | 71 | 16 | 96 | 12 | 126 | 8 | 161 | 4 |
Kalmaegi | 1926 | T. | 138 | 26 | 188 | 22 | 292 | 18 | 396 | 14 | 469 | 10 |
Fung-wong | 1927 | S.T.S. | 164 | 7 | 453 | 3 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kammuri | 1928 | SuperT. | 58 | 28 | 97 | 24 | 136 | 20 | 182 | 16 | 245 | 12 |
Phanfone | 1929 | T. | 50 | 22 | 60 | 18 | 89 | 14 | 126 | 10 | 221 | 6 |
Average Error | 84 | 144 | 205 | 265 | 309 | |||||||
Total number of forecasts | 326 | 236 | 155 | 102 | 56 |
Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.