TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2016

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Table 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2016

Name of tropical cyclone	Code	Max Intensity	24-hour forecast position		48-hour forecast position		72-hour forecast position		96-hour forecast position		120-hour forecast position
Name of tropical cyclone	Code	Max Intensity	Average error	No. of forecasts	Average error	No. of forecasts	Average error	No. of forecasts	Average error	No. of forecasts	Average error	No. of forecasts
Nepartak	1601	SuperT.	52	17	99	13	164	9	261	5	532	2
Mirinae	1603	S.T.S.	61	8	138	4	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nida	1604	T.	67	13	137	9	297	5	515	1	-	-
Dianmu	1608	T.S.	47	7	78	4	-	-	-	-	-	-
Mindulle	1609	S.T.S.	43	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Lionrock	1610	S.T.	78	24	120	24	192	22	266	19	392	17
Namtheun	1612	S.T.	39	8	86	6	158	4	-	-	-	-
Malou	1613	T.D.	147	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Meranti	1614	SuperT.	68	16	158	12	208	8	200	5	322	2
Rai	1615	T.D.	86	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Malakas	1616	S.T.	76	23	166	20	290	16	390	12	486	8
Megi	1617	S.T.	67	14	106	10	148	6	158	3	124	1
Chaba	1618	SuperT.	55	11	113	9	278	6	555	3	869	1
Aere	1619	T.S.	63	16	134	12	239	8	429	4	-	-
Sarika	1621	SuperT.	33	21	82	17	169	13	224	9	262	5
Haima	1622	SuperT.	53	15	109	11	152	7	160	4	179	2
Meari	1623	T.	122	9	247	9	493	6	688	4	651	2
Tokage	1625	S.T.S.	65	11	112	7	111	3	-	-	-	-
Nock-ten	1626	SuperT.	70	15	99	11	98	7	115	4	120	2
Average Error			64		126		215		305		392
Total number of forecasts			233		178		120		73		42

Note:

1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.

2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.