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TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2016

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2016

Table 4.12   Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2016

Name of
tropical
cyclone
Code Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position 48-hour forecast position 72-hour forecast position 96-hour forecast position 120-hour forecast position
Average error No. of forecasts Average error No. of forecasts Average error No. of forecasts Average error No. of forecasts Average error No. of forecasts
Nepartak 1601 SuperT. 52 17 99 13 164 9 261 5 532 2
Mirinae 1603 S.T.S. 61 8 138 4 - - - - - -
Nida 1604 T. 67 13 137 9 297 5 515 1 - -
Dianmu 1608 T.S. 47 7 78 4 - - - - - -
Mindulle 1609 S.T.S. 43 2 - - - - - - - -
Lionrock 1610 S.T. 78 24 120 24 192 22 266 19 392 17
Namtheun 1612 S.T. 39 8 86 6 158 4 - - - -
Malou 1613 T.D. 147 1 - - - - - - - -
Meranti 1614 SuperT. 68 16 158 12 208 8 200 5 322 2
Rai 1615 T.D. 86 2 - - - - - - - -
Malakas 1616 S.T. 76 23 166 20 290 16 390 12 486 8
Megi 1617 S.T. 67 14 106 10 148 6 158 3 124 1
Chaba 1618 SuperT. 55 11 113 9 278 6 555 3 869 1
Aere 1619 T.S. 63 16 134 12 239 8 429 4 - -
Sarika 1621 SuperT. 33 21 82 17 169 13 224 9 262 5
Haima 1622 SuperT. 53 15 109 11 152 7 160 4 179 2
Meari 1623 T. 122 9 247 9 493 6 688 4 651 2
Tokage 1625 S.T.S. 65 11 112 7 111 3 - - - -
Nock-ten 1626 SuperT. 70 15 99 11 98 7 115 4 120 2
Average Error 64 126 215 305 392
Total number of forecasts 233 178 120 73 42
Note:
1.Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and 36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.