TABLE 4.12 Verification of the tropical cyclone track forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory in 2015
Name of
tropical
cyclone
Code
Max
Intensity
24-hour forecast position
48-hour forecast position
72-hour forecast position
96-hour forecast position
120-hour forecast position
Average
error
No. of
forecasts
Average
error
No. of
forecasts
Average
error
No. of
forecasts
Average
error
No. of
forecasts
Average
error
No. of
forecasts
Mekkhala
1501
T.
77
12
84
8
157
5
-
-
-
-
Bavi
1503
T.S.
57
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Maysak
1504
SuperT.
58
13
94
9
108
6
-
-
-
-
Noul
1506
SuperT.
53
23
96
19
110
15
-
-
-
-
Dolphin
1507
SuperT.
30
7
77
5
60
2
-
-
-
-
Kujira
1508
T.S.
88
14
184
10
332
6
415
2
-
-
Chan-hom
1509
SuperT.
67
18
151
14
254
10
418
7
767
4
Linfa
1510
T.
93
25
184
21
305
17
377
13
568
9
Nangka
1511
SuperT.
63
13
102
10
104
8
154
6
278
4
Halola
1512
T.
57
9
120
6
189
4
236
2
-
-
Soudelor
1513
SuperT.
50
15
44
11
60
7
78
4
168
2
Goni
1515
SuperT.
47
25
73
23
95
19
141
15
297
11
Etau
1518
S.T.S.
126
4
278
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
Vamco
1519
T.D.
62
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dujuan
1521
SuperT.
54
16
84
12
147
9
286
6
659
4
Mujigae
1522
S.T.
52
11
88
7
163
3
-
-
-
-
Koppu
1524
SuperT.
78
23
96
19
104
15
99
11
128
7
Champi
1525
SuperT.
42
2
144
2
294
2
272
1
-
-
In-fa
1526
SuperT.
147
8
352
6
481
4
558
2
-
-
Melor
1527
S.T.
94
16
163
12
229
8
246
5
257
2
Average Error
69
121
175
242
394
Total number of forecasts
258
196
140
74
43
Note:
1.
Verification includes tropical cyclone forecast tracks issued by the Hong Kong Observatory at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC for tropical cyclones within the area bounded by 7°N and
36°N, 100°E to 140°E.
2.
Error refers to the distance between the tropical cyclone best track position (see Section 5) and forecast position of the Hong Kong Observatory, in the unit of km.
