Chance of a significant earthquake in Hong Kong
Tectonic setting of Hong Kong
Most earthquakes of the world occur along the boundaries of crustal plates. Hong Kong lies within the Eurasian Plate and is located rather far away from the nearest boundary with the Pacific Plate on the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt that runs through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines. The chance of a major local tremor is very small.
Earthquake risk in Hong Kong
Recent study by Geotechnical Engineering Office showed that in Hong Kong, the return period for an Intensity V (5) tremor would be 30 to 40 years and that for an Intensity VII (7) tremor would be 500 to 600 years.
Trend of felt tremors in recent years
There is no evidence of an increase in the number of locally felt tremors in recent years. Since the Hong Kong Short-period Seismograph Network went into operation in 1979, around two locally felt earth tremors were recorded each year on average. The list of these tremors are available at List of Locally Felt Earth Tremors since 1979.