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A Brief Discussion on the Polar Vortex and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

A Brief Discussion on the Polar Vortex and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

TSE Kwan-shu, TSE Wai-po
May 2026

Formation and Monitoring of the Polar Vortex
As autumn begins, the Northern Hemisphere receives progressively less solar radiation, the temperatures in the polar stratosphere (around 15-50 km above the surface) become much lower than that in the mid-latitudes, creating a substantial north-south temperature difference and temperature gradient. Warmer mid-latitude air therefore flows toward the North Pole, but isdeflected to the rightdue to the Coriolis force caused by Earth's rotation, subsequently forming a vortex that rotates around the polar region from west to east, known as the “Polar Vortex” [1,2]. In general, the greater the temperature gradient, the stronger the vortex intensity.
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Figure 1 - Temperature at 10 hPa (around 30-32 km above the surface) in December 2025 showed the polar vortex situated over the North Pole, its core temperature reached as low as -80oC. The figure is created in polar stereographic projection with the North Pole at the center (Image and data sources: NOAA [3]).
The polar vortex is a cold-core low-pressure system that persists over the Arctic stratosphere during the boreal winter (Figure 1). As the polar vortex is a planetary scale weather system, its variation of intensity might influence the troposphere below and even the weather at the surface [4]. Therefore, scientists monitor the stratospheric zonal wind speeds and temperature using radiosondes and satellite data to assess the changes of the intensity of the polar vortex [5].
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Figure 2 - Scientists monitor the stratospheric zonal wind speeds (positive refers to westerlies and negative refers to easterlies) and temperature to assess the changes of the intensity of the polar vortex. Red line shows the observation data from July 2018 to July 2019, and the black lines showed the observed extremes between 1979 and 2018 (Image source: [6]).
Seasonal Variation of the Polar Vortex
With the Northern Hemisphere receives less solar radiation, the temperatures in the Arctic reaches the annual minimum from December to January. The polar vortex peaks in strength with the strongest westerly winds in the stratosphere. When spring begins, the temperature in the Arctic gradually rise due to increase of solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere, reducing the temperature gradient between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes, the westerly winds in the stratosphere will therefore weaken. When the zonal wind speed in the stratosphere drops to zero or shift to easterlies and last for more than 10 days, it indicates the polar vortex has weakened significant or breakdown completely, scientists refer to this as the “Final Warming” [7]. “Final Warming” typically occurs between March and May every year (Figure 2) where the stratospheric polar vortex completely breaks down and does not reform new structures. It will then re-establish in the next autumn (Figure 3).
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Figure 3 - Seasonal variation of the polar vortex (Image source: NOAA [5]).
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
From December to February, the polar vortex typically strong and stable, confining the extremely cold air to the polar regions. However, when there are sudden warmings over the Arctic stratosphere, the polar vortex might be weakened, causing it to become displaced or even splits [6]. This phenomenon is called “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” or SSW. It refers to a rapid rise in temperature of several tens of degrees in the polar stratosphere in a few days, persisting of about one to two weeks [6].
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Figure 4 - An SSW event in late December 2018 to early January 2019. The polar vortex originally situated over the North Pole has become displaced at around 31 December and split in the following few days (Image and data sources: NOAA [3]).
Research shows that SSW can influence the troposphere below, making the polar jet stream become wavier or even lead to blocking patterns, the airmasses originally confined over the Arctic may spills southward and bring very cold weather to the mid-latitudes [8]. Nevertheless, the understanding of how they affect both weather in the surface and the upper atmosphere is still incomplete [6]. Meanwhile, the influences of global warming andENSOon SSW and the polar vortex are also active research topics in academia [9][10].
References:
[1] HKO - The Relationship between Winter Weather, the Polar Vortex, and the Arctic Oscillation
[2] Royal Meteorological Society MetMatters. Polar vortex, sudden stratospheric warmings and the Beast from the East
[3] NOAA Physical sciences laboratory. Plot: NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1
[4] UK Met Office. Sudden Stratospheric Warming
[5] NOAA Climate.gov. Welcome to the Polar Vortex Blog!
[6] Baldwin, M. P., Ayarzagüena, B., Birner, T., Butchart, N., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., et al. (2021). Sudden stratospheric warmings. Reviews of Geophysics, 59, e2020RG000708. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000708
[7] Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A., Domeisen, D. I. V., Simpson, I. R., & Sjoberg, J. (2019). Predictability of Northern Hemisphere final stratospheric warmings and their surface impacts. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 10578–10588. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083346
[8] Hanna, E. et al (2024). Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming. Environ. Res.: Climate, 3, 042004. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad93f3
[9] Palmeiro, F. M., García-Serrano, J., Ruggieri, P., Batté, L., & Gualdi, S. (2023). On the influence of ENSO on sudden stratospheric warmings. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128, e2022JD037607. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037607
[10] Salminen, A., Asikainen, T., Maliniemi, V., & Mursula, K. (2020). Dependence of sudden stratospheric warmings on internal and external drivers. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086444. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086444