Annual rainfall projection data for Hong Kong with more details
Annual rainfall projection data for Hong Kong with more details |
Following the information provided by the IPCC Interactive Atlas, the Observatory acquired additional data from a number of global climate models that underpin the IPCC Interactive Atlas. Based on this set of climate model data (as at July 2022), a complete set of rainfall projections for Hong Kong, including likely range of projection, is computed and shown in the table below. It should be noted that the projections for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 may be slightly different from the initial projections released in December 2021.
Projected change in 20-year average of annual rainfall of Hong Kong relative to the average of 1995-2014 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Average annual rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory during 1995-2014 is 2456mm. It should be noted that rainfall exhibits significant regional variation.
| Low SSP1-2.6 |
Intermediate SSP2-4.5 |
High SSP3-7.0 |
Very high SSP5-8.5 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (%) | Likely range (%) | Mean (%) | Likely range (%) | Mean (%) | Likely range (%) | Mean (%) | Likely range (%) | |
| 2021-2040 | 3.1 | -7.9 – 13.7 | 2.7 | -7.4 – 8.1 | 0.1 | -9.7 – 8.5 | 3.9 | -5.2 – 14.0 |
| 2031-2050 | 5.0 | -3.0 – 16.4 | 2.4 | -6.1 – 9.8 | 0.6 | -10.0 – 10.0 | 4.0 | -3.1 – 12.6 |
| 2041-2060 | 5.8 | -6.0 – 18.8 | 5.2 | -6.0 – 14.4 | 1.1 | -8.2 – 8.4 | 4.5 | -2.8 – 15.0 |
| 2051-2070 | 7.3 | -2.7 – 20.8 | 5.4 | -3.9 – 14.7 | 1.2 | -10.3 – 9.5 | 5.5 | -5.3 – 14.8 |
| 2061-2080 | 8.6 | -2.9 – 20.2 | 5.7 | -2.9 – 17.0 | 2.6 | -6.5 – 14.3 | 6.0 | -8.2 – 17.0 |
| 2071-2090 | 8.8 | -0.7 – 16.8 | 7.5 | -3.5 – 17.0 | 3.7 | -4.6 – 16.7 | 8.1 | -6.1 – 19.6 |
| 2081-2100 | 7.9 | -0.6 – 16.3 | 7.5 | -4.6 – 18.2 | 4.7 | -4.7 – 19.0 | 10.0 | -5.9 – 25.8 |
The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. Data source: WCRP CMIP6 (not IPCC Interactive Atlas)