Skip Content

Annual rainfall projection data for Hong Kong with more details

Annual rainfall projection data for Hong Kong with more details


Following the information provided by the IPCC Interactive Atlas, the Observatory acquired additional data from a number of global climate models that underpin the IPCC Interactive Atlas. Based on this set of climate model data (as at July 2022), a complete set of rainfall projections for Hong Kong, including likely range of projection, is computed and shown in the table below. It should be noted that the projections for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 may be slightly different from the initial projections released in December 2021.

Projected change in annual rainfall of Hong Kong relative to the average of 1995-2014 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Average annual rainfall at the Hong Kong Observatory during 1995-2014 is 2456mm. It should be noted that rainfall exhibits significant regional variation.

Low
SSP1-2.6
Intermediate
SSP2-4.5
High
SSP3-7.0
Very high
SSP5-8.5
Mean (%) Likely range (%) Mean (%) Likely range (%) Mean (%) Likely range (%) Mean (%) Likely range (%)
2021-2040 3.1 -7.9 – 13.7 2.7 -7.4 – 8.1 0.1 -9.7 – 8.5 3.9 -5.2 – 14.0
2031-2050 5.0 -3.0 – 16.4 2.4 -6.1 – 9.8 0.6 -10.0 – 10.0 4.0 -3.1 – 12.6
2041-2060 5.8 -6.0 – 18.8 5.2 -6.0 – 14.4 1.1 -8.2 – 8.4 4.5 -2.8 – 15.0
2051-2070 7.3 -2.7 – 20.8 5.4 -3.9 – 14.7 1.2 -10.3 – 9.5 5.5 -5.3 – 14.8
2061-2080 8.6 -2.9 – 20.2 5.7 -2.9 – 17.0 2.6 -6.5 – 14.3 6.0 -8.2 – 17.0
2071-2090 8.8 -0.7 – 16.8 7.5 -3.5 – 17.0 3.7 -4.6 – 16.7 8.1 -6.1 – 19.6
2081-2100 7.9 -0.6 – 16.3 7.5 -4.6 – 18.2 4.7 -4.7 – 19.0 10.0 -5.9 – 25.8

The probability for the likely range to cover the outcome is at least 66%. Data source: WCRP CMIP6 (not IPCC Interactive Atlas)

» Back to annual rainfall projection