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Climate Projections for Hong Kong - Annual maximum and minimum temperatures

Climate Projections for Hong Kong

Annual maximum and minimum temperatures


In addition to statistical method, the Observatory employed a regional climate model to downscale data of a number of computer climate models in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and incorporated urbanization effect into the downscaled results to project the future changes in annual maximum and annual minimum temperatures in Hong Kong.

Projected changes in the annual maximum temperature of Hong Kong Barchat

Projected changes in the annual maximum temperature of Hong Kong (°C, relative to the average of 1986-2005) under the high (RCP8.5, red) and medium-low (RCP4.5, orange) greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.

Projected changes in the annual minimum temperature of Hong Kong Barchat

Projected changes in the annual minimum temperature of Hong Kong (°C, relative to the average of 1986-2005) under the high (RCP8.5, red) and medium-low (RCP4.5, orange) greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.

 

Under the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5), annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature over the coastal region of southern China by the end of this century (2081-2100) are expected to be significantly higher than the average of 1986-2005.

Projected change in annual maximum temperature in 2081-2100 spatial map

Projected change in annual maximum temperature in 2081-2100 (°C, relative to the average of 1986-2005) over the coastal region of southern China under the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5).
(Note: The above map shows simulation results of the regional climate model without urbanization effect.)

Projected change in annual minimum temperature in 2081-2100 spatial map

Projected change in annual minimum temperature in 2081-2100 (°C, relative to the average of 1986-2005) over the coastal region of southern China under the high greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5).
(Note: The above map shows simulation results of the regional climate model without urbanization effect.)


If you wish to obtain the data generated by the regional climate model, please email to climchge@hko.gov.hk stating clearly your affiliation, requested parameters and the purpose of using the data.


Note:

Climate projection uncertainties

It is important to note that climate projection is very different from weather or seasonal forecasts. Climate projection involves assumptions in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios and aims at describing the plausible change in the future climate from a long-term perspective, rather than depicting the "day-to-day" or "year-to-year" variations in weather.

Although a majority of the model projections suggests in general consistent trends for the changes in the climate of the 21st century, inter-model differences in the projections for the future climate are still rather large. This, to a certain extent, reflects that climate projection is still subject to various uncertainties in the simulation of future climate, which depend very much on such factors as future greenhouse gas emissions, the choice of models, the ability of climate models to simulate physical processes, the downscaling methodology, etc. The technique is expected to continue to improve over time as scientists know more about various physical processes that impact on the climate.