Annual Outlook for 2026

23 March 2026

The Observatory has issued the annual outlook for 2026. Taking into consideration a number of factors including the possibility of the El Niño development in the second half of this year, climate model predictions and objective guidance, it is expected that the number of tropical cyclones coming within 500 kilometres of Hong Kong this year will be near normal, around 4 to 7 tropical cyclones. The tropical cyclone season is likely to start in June or later, and end in October or before. The annual rainfall in Hong Kong for this year is expected to be near normal. However, Hong Kong is still likely to be affected by rainstorms and localized heavy rain. Members of the public are reminded to be prepared for the rain and tropical cyclone seasons. With the possibility of developing into El Niño in the second half of this year and the continuous warming climate, the annual mean temperature in Hong Kong is expected to be above normal this year with a high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record.