at 20:00 HKT 20 November 2018
10.7 N, 126.6 E|
|Maximum sustained wind near centre:
The tropical cyclone to the east of the Philippines will move across the central to southern parts of the Philippines and the southern part of the South China Sea in the next few days.
Forecast Positions and Intensities
( Past Positions and Intensities )
|Date time||Position||Classification||Maximum sustained wind near centre|
|20:00 HKT 21 November 2018||10.5 N||121.4 E||Tropical Depression||45 km/h|
|20:00 HKT 22 November 2018||11.1 N||115.2 E||Tropical Storm||65 km/h|
|20:00 HKT 23 November 2018||10.9 N||111.5 E||Tropical Storm||85 km/h|
|20:00 HKT 24 November 2018||11.1 N||109.1 E||Severe Tropical Storm||90 km/h|
|20:00 HKT 25 November 2018||12.4 N||107.4 E||Tropical Depression||45 km/h|
- Tropical cyclones centred within the area bounded by 7-36N and 100-140E will be shown on this website. According to the analysed position of the tropical cyclone and the tropical cyclone warning signal in force, the update time of this webpage and the information shown will be different. Details are listed in the table below:
|Tropical cyclonesituation||Tropical CycloneWarning SignalNo.1 or abovein force||No Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal in force
|Tropical cyclonescentred within thearea bounded by 10Nand 30N, 105E and 125E.*||Other tropical cyclonescentred within thearea bounded by 7Nand 36N,100E and140E.**|
|Update time[Observation time]|
(Hong Kong time)
|Every hour[Every hour]
|- Track- Analysed position- Maximum sustained wind near centre- Uncertainty of the track
||✓ ||✓ ||✓ |
|- Distance and bearing from Hong Kong
||✓ ||✓ || |
*The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory's tropical cyclone warning for shipping.
**When the tropical cyclone is expected to enter the area bounded by 10N and 30N, 105E and 125E in about 24 hours, the Observatory will also update the tropical cyclone track at 04:00 and 16:00 Hong Kong time (corresponding to the observation time at 02:00 and 14:00 respectively).
- While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% ('Potential Track Area'). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the 'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:
|Analysed Position||30 km|
|24-hour forecast position||125 km|
|48-hour forecast position||225 km|
|72-hour forecast position||325 km|
|96-hour forecast position||400 km|
|120-hour forecast position||500 km|
- In order to show the forecast track and intensity category of the tropical cyclone clearly, the track maps on this webpage may only display the time labels of some positions of the tropical cyclone. Users can visit the Geographical Information System (GIS) version of the webpage to display all the time labels on an interactive map.
- Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.