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 Track Probability Forecast Track Probability
Forecast




Tropical Depression
at 20:00 HKT 16 July 2018


Position: 18.8 N, 122.3 E (about 930 km east-southeast of Hong Kong)
Maximum sustained wind near centre: 45 km/h

The tropical cyclone near Luzon will enter the South China Sea and move westwards across the northern part of the South China Sea rapidly tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Track at 20:00 HKT 16 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 20:00 HKT 16 July 2018

Tropical Cyclone Track at 20:00 HKT 16 July 2018


Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date timePositionClassificationMaximum sustained wind near centre
20:00 HKT 17 July 201819.6 N113.6 ETropical Depression55 km/h
20:00 HKT 18 July 201819.7 N106.5 ETropical Storm65 km/h
20:00 HKT 19 July 201820.7 N101.9 ELow Pressure Area40 km/h

( Past Positions and Intensities )


Notes

  • The symbol low pressure area symbol will be displayed when the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken into a low pressure area or transform into an extratropical low.
  • Past track is in black, forecast track is in red.
  • The tropical cyclone symbol in different colours are the forecast positions of the tropical cyclone at different times (as shown at the upper left corner of the figure).
  • While the forecast positions and track indicate the most likely future path of the tropical cyclone, they may deviate from the actual path taken by the storm. The yellow shaded area on the map indicates the probable area within which the tropical cyclone will fall with a probability of 70% ('Potential Track Area'). Literally, it means that in 10 times of track forecast for similar situations, the tropical cyclone will be centred within the indicated area in about 7 times. The area grows as the forecast hour increases. It will be particularly larger beyond 72 hours and is indicated with lighter shadings on the map. The size in terms of radius of the 'Potential Track Area' corresponding to different forecast hours are determined from the error statistics of the forecasts issued in past years and are as shown in the following table:

    Analysed Position30 km
    24-hour forecast position125 km
    48-hour forecast position225 km
    72-hour forecast position325 km
    96-hour forecast position400 km
    120-hour forecast position500 km

  • The tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre are based on Hong Kong Observatory's tropical cyclone warning for shipping issued eight times a day at 0:30, 3:30, 6:30, 9:30, 12:30, 15:30, 18:30 and 21:30 HKT, about one and a half hours after the time of observation. The analysed positions incorporate additional information derived from surface and upper-air data and may therefore be slightly different from the real-time satellite or radar-based provisional positions given in the hourly bulletins for public. Meanwhile, the webpage will also display other information, including distance and bearing of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong.
  • The past tropical cyclone track, analysed positions and maximum sustained wind near centre may be updated when additional data is received.
  • Short-term erratic departures of the tropical cyclone from the general direction of movement may occur from time to time. These departures are partly due to uncertainties in locating the centre of the tropical cyclone, and partly due to actual short-term variations in the direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone itself.
Last revision date: <16 Jul 2018>