An outsider writing on Nuri

I would like to recommend a blog article to you. You would see how an outsider views the work of the Hong Kong Observatory during the passage of Nuri over Hong Kong. Go to the link:
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/chicken-goal/article?mid=292.

I don't know the author. I would like to thank him for explaining, in layman terms and based on objective facts, the tricky issues the Observatory faced in making the various decisions during the event. He also explains well the factors involved in considering the various alternative timing possibilities for the issuance of the number 8 signal.

It shows that not all Hong Kong people are stuck with the negative. I wish and believe that we Hong Kong people coming together could understand and handle problems with objectivity and rationality.

C.Y. Lam

Nuri in Hong Kong

During the passage of Typhoon Nuri between 20 and 23 August, Observatory colleagues were terribly busy for four days and three nights. Here come my most sincere thanks to them for their great efforts.

Around 5 p.m. on the 22nd, the centre of Nuri's eye landed near Sai Kung. It then made a mysterious turn towards the west, crossing Victoria Harbour, skirting to the south of Tsing Yi and crossing the north-eastern corner of Lantau. A north-westward turn followed, taking the centre across the Tuen Mun ¡V Yuen Long area. It entered Deep Bay by 9 p.m., four hours after landing. Because the size of the eye was also large, the winds in many places were fairly light for a rather long time. It created for some people the impression that Nuri did not bring very high winds.

Hong Kong has indeed been incredibly lucky lately. Firstly, the Olympic equestrian event was sandwiched between two typhoons and yet it miraculously escaped their impact. Secondly, had there been small deviations in the track of Nuri, the urban areas would have been hit by much higher winds.

During the approach of Nuri in the morning and the early afternoon of the 22nd, Hong Kong was under northerly to north-westerly winds. Owing to the sheltering effect of the hills in the New Territories, winds in the urban areas were much lighter than those in exposed areas. Furthermore, owing to the enhanced westward movement of the eye after crossing Hong Kong, the typical south-westerly squalls in the "typhoon¡¦s tail" lasted shorter than usual. We therefore escaped with great luck much of the damage which those squalls could have caused.

Had the overall track of Nuri shifted slightly, say 20-30 km towards the west, Nuri would have skirted to the south of Hong Kong, like Typhoon York in 1999, for which the number 10 signal was hoisted. We would have gone through a totally different experience. Wind direction would have veered from north-west to north-east and then to south-east. Victoria Harbour would have been exposed to the full force of the gales ahead of Nuri. In a different scenario, had Nuri spent more time moving towards the north after crossing Hong Kong, the "typhoon's tail" would have brought frightening rain squalls.

I am explaining these potential situations with the hope that it would lead people to realize how incredibly lucky Hong Kong has been lately. Hopefully we would all learn to live with more thankfulness in our thoughts.

Every time after a typhoon passage, certain people would focus on the negative and criticize the Observatory for this or that fault. Hong Kong is a free and liberal society; all have the freedom to express their views. Thus I am open to such diversity of views. I also encourage my colleagues to see these views as a reflection of how much people value our service. Furthermore, I request them to distill from the numerous criticisms or opinions, ideas which we could employ to improve our service.

However, on this occasion, while we operated the signal system thoughtfully to ensure that most workers avoided the danger of returning home in severely crowded public transport and in rain squalls brought by the approaching eye, we were surprised to hear certain people alleging that we manipulated data to enable ourselves to issue a number 8 signal which was "unnecessary". On another matter, we issued the number 9 signal to warn people of the passage of the eye and to alert them to sudden changes in wind direction and speed. But we were teased for doing so on the ground that we knew not which number 8 signal to issue in terms of direction. Whoever said these words might have done it inadvertently, but Observatory people are really hurt. If these are to be what we get in return for our hard work every time, how could people be motivated in the future?

What made me truly sad was a press report that someone claimed that the number 8 signal was unnecessary because winds were not strong enough to "move people". This is a typical case of a single person projecting his experience at a single location to represent the overall situation in Hong Kong. The truth during the passage of Nuri was that at least two persons lost their lives and 70 were hurt. According to press reports, three persons got hurt because they were blown off their feet. How many more people have to be killed or hurt before a number 8 signal is necessary?

May I call for a higher degree of rationality as well as sensibilities in the exercise of the freedom of speech? In discussions, we should state the facts, explain the reasons, mutually respect each other and listen well. Then we would be truly living the spirit of liberty and democracy. Only then would we derive synergy through the harmonious amalgamation of the energy of the individuals for the greater public good.

Finally, I must reiterate my gratitude to my colleagues at the Observatory. For many years, they have worked passionately and contributed in many ways to the well-being of Hong Kong. For many years, they have to suffer innumerable unreasonable criticisms and groundless insults. But still they persevere and deliver service to the public with unswerving dedication. With such colleagues, what more could I ask for!

C.Y. Lam

Schematic track of Typhoon Nuri : If the track on the 21st is extrapolated forward, Nuri would have passed to the south of Hong Kong. Note also the meandering track within Hong Kong as well as the sudden westward turn after crossing Hong Kong. The arrows linked to the circles show where Nuri was when the relevant typhoon signals were issued.

Hospital, typhoon Signal, loss of lives

Today I return to work at the end of my sick leave. I have been away for 12 days but it seems like ages.

29 July evening : as I laid on the floor waiting for the ambulance, I was thinking, "Could I come back to work again?" I must thank the ambulance crew and the medical team at the Emergency Ward who got me out of trouble.

30 July to 5 August: I stayed in the hospital. I could do no more meteorology than watching the clouds and calling 1878200 to listen to the latest weather reports.

While in the hospital, all the people I met viz. doctors, nurses, paramedical and other supporting personnel took good care of patients, working hard and passionately. But still I saw people blindly blaming and criticizing them. It was very unreasonable and I felt very sorry for the situation. Why are there always these people who see things only negatively, without appreciating that others are working hard to help them?

5 August: I left for home around noon. Doctors warned me that I must take good rest and gave me sick leave till 9 August. Seeing that a tropical cyclone was edging close to Hong Kong, I called Dr B.Y. Lee, acting director, to discuss about the situation. I requested him to take charge of the typhoon signals.

6 August: howling winds woke me up in the small hours. I could not resist picking up the phone, intending to ask colleagues at the forecasting office what was happening. But then I hesitated. I stopped short of dialing the number. I hung up the phone and went back to sleep. I thought that I must learn to trust the procedures, the system and the people.

Signal number 8 was in force during the day. The normally busy city responded to the onslaught of the storm in an orderly manner. Long-time Hong Kong citizens would take it for granted. Some even tried to figure out tiny things which they could criticize. But the overall scheme of typhoon warning signals and community response in Hong Kong is in fact the envy of our meteorological counterparts as well as civil defense people worldwide. The system is so simple and effective, to the extent of being incredible. It is a model which many try to emulate.

9 August: the equestrian event started in Hong Kong. Last time I wrote about my worries about the weather in my blog. It turned out that we enjoyed the best possible weather, that is, cloudy without rain.

10 August: I read in the newspaper that a traffic policeman lost his life in an accident while on duty for the Olympic Games. Then I was shocked to learn about the loss of two firemen in thick smoke while trying to rescue people. Civil servants don¡¦t just shed sweat and blood; they even sacrifice their lives in delivering service. Here are my solemn salutes to my three dear colleagues who passed away.

I take this opportunity to pay my tributes to all civil servants and medical personnel working in the front-line. They face countless unfair criticisms day in and day out but still they persevere in delivering quality service. They truly deserve our great respect.

I also invite fellow citizens to look more on the positive side and to be thankful to people who serve us. In a world of peaceful mutual respect, we would all live more happily. Why not give it a try?

Back at work today, I remind myself that I should say "thank you" more often everyday.

C.Y. Lam

Watching from my hospital room

This is my third day in the hospital.

The window of my room faces north, with Tai Mo Shan in the distance and a good view of the sky above. This is an excellent post from which to observe the changing winds and clouds.

In the past two days, clouds were all moving from the left to the right. It was a reflection of the south-westerly monsoon brought to southern China by Typhoon Fung-wong which had earlier landed in Fujian. The cumulus clouds grew and dissipated incessantly. From time to time, a shower or two would pass by. I could feel the freshness of the air even sitting behind the window. It made the stuffy heat and haziness a few days back look like another world. The oceanic air coming to Hong Kong from the south-west is untouched by human smoke and fire. It brings with it the breath of Nature itself.

Today, looking through the window, the clouds have changed direction. They now move from the right to the left. Closer watching reveals that the clouds organized themselves into several "cloud streets" which run from the south-east to the north-west. Puffs of cloud move along several parallel tracks. Those crossing the Kowloon Peninsula tend to dissipate on the way. Those approaching Tai Mo Shan show much more energy and grow tall and high.

The signs are that the Pacific ridge of high pressure is extending westward to southern China and that the south-easterly winds on the edge of the ridge are displacing the south-west monsoon. Weather will become more stable, but the day-time heating inland could still trigger off isolated showers.

Apart from the gentle breeze from the sea, what people particularly like about the weather in a south-east wind regime like this one is probably the clear, pristine air. From my hospital room, the radar station on top of Tai Mo Shan looks as if it were just a few feet away. The air from the Pacific is free of dust and appears virtually transparent.

7:15 p.m. - a big red balloon is released by the King's Park Meteorological Station, a short distance to my north-west. It rises quickly, flying towards Tai Kok Tsui following the prevailing south-easterly winds. It soon disappears into the dimming twilight. The package of instruments which it carries measure air temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind speed and direction. Soon afterwards, colleagues at the observatory headquarters will know how it looks like above Hong Kong. Together with weather information from the region, they could then predict the weather for tomorrow.

In my hospital room, I don't have all the information. But I could imagine the south-easterly winds at the edge of the Pacific ridge engaging with the south-west monsoon which has not retreated very far. This conflict could eventually lead to the formation of low-pressure areas in the northern part of the South China Sea near Hong Kong.

The opening of the Olympic Games is getting close. Observatory colleagues have already started taking weather observation at the equestrian venue at Shatin for a week. Thinking about the event is becoming a preoccupation. Would the low-pressure areas bring high winds and heavy rain? Or would it instead bring the perfect weather for the equestrian event, with a mostly cloudy sky but little more than a brief shower or two? No matter what happens, one thing is sure. We shall be keeping a close watch all the time.

C.Y. Lam

Weathering the Storms for 125 years

I attended the opening ceremony of the exhibition "Weathering the Storms for 125 years" at the History Museum yesterday. The exhibition will last for two months, up to 22 September.

Severe flu had kept me in bed for three nights and three days before I left for the ceremony. I nearly missed this important occasion marking the 125th anniversary of the Hong Kong Observatory. While I was struck down by flu, I thought of the question: why organizations like the observatory could last 125 years or even longer when its constituent members all have finite life? Students of science like me are people who ask questions where others see no problems.

It appears to me that an organization is like an organism which has its own survival objective. Generations of employees come in young and go out aged, providing their youthful energy to sustain the organization in its journey towards its survival objective. Thus the age of the organization is not bounded by that of individual persons.

The individual is finite while the collective being, that is, the organization is infinite. The key lies in the individuals working with PASSION, allowing their energy to converge and align with the organization survival objective. This term of mine "survival objective" is probably what modern management calls the "vision" of organizations. It lies at the heart of the organization as a living organism.

For an organization to survive and sustain, it also requires a collective memory to accumulate experience and capability. This is often expressed in the form of established processes and procedures. But what is even more important for the organization is an ability to sense changes in the social circumstances and to self-adjust to adapt. That would depend on the collective wisdom of its employees.

I hope that you would see at our exhibition at the History Museum that the energy of the Hong Kong Observatory is derived from the guiding principle "service based on science". Never swerving from this principle, step by step, we transformed ourselves from a small observatory to a modern meteorological and geophysical institution delivering a complex array of information services, responding to Hong Kong's own metamorphosis from a small fishing village to a world metropolis.

When you visit the exhibition at History Museum, don't just admire the artifacts and instruments. I invite you to see through them how generations of observatory people created the modern Hong Kong Observatory through years of hard work and constant adjustments. When you see the meteorological records made by observatory staff imprisoned at the Stanley concentration camp during the Second World War, remember that the observations were made under extreme hardship when even staying alive was a non-trivial task. Do realize also that the Hong Kong Observatory was the only department of the Hong Kong Government which continued to carry out its basic function during the occupation period. Maybe you would then appreciate how far PASSION drives the people of the observatory.

The history of the Hong Kong Observatory is in the final analysis a history of its people. This exhibition represents our sincere salutation to all past and current staff of the Hong Kong Observatory.

C Y Lam

Minor Planet 64288

I was rather surprised when a friend told me that there was a "star" bearing my name Lamchiuying. Last weekend, I checked the website of the International Astronomical Union and indeed found a record there. Lamchiuying is Minor Planet No. 64288, discovered by Mr W.K.Y. Yeung, a well-known amateur astronomer of Hong Kong, on 18 October 2001. I would like to thank him for kindly assigning my name to this astronomical object.

In the IAU citation regarding the formal naming, it mentions my positions as Director of the Hong Kong Observatory and ex-chairman of the Hong Kong Bird Watching Society, as well as my effort in promoting public awareness of global warming. The last item is what occupies my mind most of the time nowadays.

Up to 2001, I still didn't believe that human beings could change climate. To me, climate had always been changing and there was no particular need to worry about occasional fluctuations. However, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change published an assessment report in 2001 based on the amalgamation of the research results of scientists all over the world. Data confirmed the significant climate change in the last 200 years. A strong case was presented establishing the causal relationship between carbon dioxide emitted by human beings burning coal and petroleum and the observed global warming. I am a scientist. Seeing the solid evidence, I appreciate that human beings are responsible for climate change and further realize that un-controlled climate change would have serious consequences.

From then onwards, I try my best to tell people what I know about. I hope that people would know better what climate change is. I tell people what we must do to reduce the rate of climate change, so as to avoid getting human beings and numerous other living species onto the road to extinction.

Hoping for a viable climate in the future, I gave talks everywhere. I asked colleagues of the Observatory to study how Hong Kong climate would change and then publicize the results for people's information. However, as I worked to promote public awareness of climate change, from time to time, I was labelled an "alarmist". At those moments, I do wonder whether I should continue my effort.

The arrival of Minor Planet 64288 is a timely reminder to me that other people on Earth do share my concern. Thus I am not going to give up my campaign. I shall persevere in my effort to prevent climate from becoming hazardous to living things on Earth.

Minor Planet 64288, with or without my name, remains its own self moving on its original orbit. However, for me, I could now imagine myself at its position watching silently in darkness the evolving universe and in particular the tiny blue Earth in the distance. It offers a totally perspective. The emergence and extinction of the human race would be but a faint, miniscule flash.

LAM Chiu Ying

Knowledge brings worry

Rain fell intermittently on 7 July. To most people, it was just another rainy day. But to front-line weather forecasters, it was a very special, worrisome day.

We had expected the broad trough of low pressure in the South China Sea to edge close to Hong Kong, bringing continuous heavy rain. Indeed rain fell hard on 6 July. But an area of low pressure quietly emerged over the sea to the east of Hainan Island. It started moving towards the north-east, adding an element of unpredictability in the weather forecast.

While all evidence indicated that the area of low pressure would not strengthen too much, it did show up clearly as a vortex in the weather map and was moving closer to Hong Kong. The weather forecaster appreciated that it was something requiring attention and started mentioning it in the "General Situation" section of the weather bulletin for the public.

It was business as usual on 7 July, but tension gradually built up. The forecaster kept the area of low pressure under close watch as it crossed the 200 km circle. The Director could not resist wondering whether the system might intensify into a tropical depression with maximum sustained winds near the centre exceeding 40 km/hour. Should it happen, a number 1 signal would be required. With a weather system in such close proximity, computer outputs from numerical models were of little use. We were left with watching it closely and responding as the situation evolved.

As the area of low pressure skirted to the south of Hong Kong, local winds turned northerly. Weather stabilized and rain subsided. It even stopped for a while. By the evening, the vortex, which was very nearly a tropical cyclone, landed to the east of Hong Kong in the nearby Huizhou-Shanwei area where much rain fell. In Hong Kong, winds turned south-westerly and rain resumed. But the rainfall amount on 7 July was noticeably less than that on the previous day.

The area of low pressure and the associated vortex developed in a data-scarce area in the sea. There was a high degree of unpredictability. Had it intensified just a little more, it would have necessitated the issuance of the number 1 signal. Had it landed 100 km to the west, Hong Kong would have experienced much more wind and rain. A tiny shift in the atmosphere very often translates into major differences in weather at a particular spot. This is what the weather forecaster has to live with nearly everyday in his work. This is what makes weather forecasting difficult.

To most people in Hong Kong, 7 July was just another day. But for the weathermen who looked at the large volume of weather information, it was a day of great worries because of the low-pressure vortex.

Many people say: knowledge is power. Let me tell you: knowledge sometimes is the source of worry!

C Y Lam

Typhoon Fengshen

Typhoon Fengshen brought the first number 8 signal this year. It also gave people an unexpected half-day holiday in the morning of 25 June.

Fengshen had a very dangerous look as it approached Hong Kong. But we were lucky. Several factors worked together to reduce its impact on Hong Kong to a very low level. Firstly, as the typhoon moved northwards across the South China Sea, it weakened into a severe tropical storm. Secondly, a couple of hours before it was about to land in Hong Kong, it swerved to the right and narrowly missed Hong Kong, traversing the waters offshore Sai Kung Country Park (figure 1). Thus we were spared a direct hit. Thirdly, at its closest point of approach, Fengshen brought generally northerly winds in Hong Kong. Most places were therefore sheltered by the hills. Finally and most importantly, when Fengshen got close, most people had already left work and were back in the safety of home. There was no need to commute in wind and rain.

Had Fengshen arrived a few hours earlier, I am afraid people would have to face traffic jam in the homeward rush and to go back to work the next morning in unpleasant wind and rain. In that case, the Observatory would be the target of complaints and outright scolding. It would have been a totally different situation. The wind and the rain would be the same, but a difference of a few hours would have resulted in very different outcomes. The reason of course is the human perception. This is the reality which front-line meteorological workers have to live with.


Let us have a look at the science. After the event, the track of Typhoon Fengshen looked rather simple and normal, plodding steadily north-westwards over a period of several days (figure 2). But we at the Observatory (and our counterparts elsewhere in the world) saw in the upper-air weather charts that it was heading into an area of high pressure. Going straight ahead would indeed violate established wisdom. Even the world's most advanced numerical models shared the same sentiment. For consecutive days, the models together predicted Fengshen would turn northward and then north-eastward. At first, it was forecast to turn north east of the Philippines. After crossing the Philippines and entering the South China Sea, it was forecast to move towards Taiwan Strait. Even shortly before reaching Hong Kong, it was forecast to turn and hit eastern Guangdong (see figure 2).

Seen from this perspective, the peculiar thing about the typhoon track is that people who know nothing about computer and meteorology could have predicted it better than scientists aided by computer. What we call "high technology" does fail occasionally. The real high technology actually resides in Nature itself.

Some people might turn it around and say that meteorologists and computers are useless. The man in the street who simply pushes the typhoon centre ahead would have won the competition. I have to point out that this is using a single case to create a "general principle", which is not a good practice. Since computer models became part of the trade, typhoon track forecasting has improved a lot. It is particularly noticeable since 2000 (see figure 3). Of course, there is no room for complacency for scientists. The failure this time marks the beginning of a new round of research efforts.

In serving the public, our work has to sit on a rational base. Providing guidance to forecasters through the use of the computation outputs of computer models is a realization of this principle. It is also the only means of enabling continual improvement. To be able to forecast weather better in the future, there is no other way.

C Y Lam

Taking leave and black rainstorm

I have not written for a while because I took two weeks of leave and because much work awaited me on return.

Living in big cities dictates that our bodies have to work like a machine in high gear. It is easily worn out over time and efficiency comes down. The machine might even break down. So it has to be stopped from time to time for maintenance. Fortunately, we are living things and have the inherent capacity to repair ourselves during rest time. From this perspective, taking leave is part of work. Taking good rest during well-earned leaves is being responsible to the job itself.

The Observatory issued the Black Rainstorm Warning on 7 June while I was on leave at home. This was the first time in more than a decade for me to be a bystander in a rainstorm warning situation. Like fellow citizens, I relied on the radio and the internet to watch the evolution of the weather situation and to learn about the subsequent incidents.

The rain on 7 June was very characteristic of summer. It was very unevenly distributed and was particularly heavy in rather localized areas. The attached map fig. 1 shows the rain which fell in Hong Kong between 8 a.m. and 9 a.m. More than 100 millimetres were recorded in Kowloon, northern Hong Kong Island and northern Lantau. The south-eastern part of Hong Kong Island got less than 10 millimetres while the north-western New Territories got virtually nothing. We often say that Hong Kong is small. But due to the hilly terrain, rain could be highly variable within the territory itself.

At that time, like weather fans who discussed the subject on the internet, I was puzzled to see the radar scope showing rain areas which kept on converging on Hong Kong (see attached fig. 2). Even after I studied the weather charts later, it was still not easy to understand. In fact, modern meteorological observations still do not cover the 3-dimensional atmosphere fully. In the absence of a complete knowledge of "the present" in terms of the weather situation, it is inevitable that the weather in "the future" is not completely predictable.

Although modern technology is more advanced than before, we must remain humble in the face of the great complexity of nature. We have to respectfully recognize that the great natural forces do determine their own course.

C Y Lam

Figure 1: Rainfall distribution 8-9 a.m.

Figure 2: Radar picture 8:30 a.m.

Life - Nature - Earthquake

On 24 May, the young Black-eared Kite in the Observatory's wood flew off from the nest for the first time. Under the watchful eyes of its parents, it flew short flights checking the nearby neighbourhood. In the last few days, it still returned to the nest from time to time. But I am sure that very soon it would soar high and go to faraway places, becoming part of the everlasting Life on Earth.

Life is like an ever-flowing river. Numerous rivers join hands to form the wide oceans. Sea-water evaporates to become water vapour, eventually turning into cloud, rain or snow, and then returning to the ground and nourishing the rivers. At river estuaries, rivers "die" while the oceans are "born". On the other hand, rain marks the "death" of clouds but also the "birth" of rivers. In the great cycle of life and death, there is no way to tell where the start and the end are.

The 12 May Earthquake drew our attention to the "death" aspect of Nature. But we must carefully maintain a balanced mind, avoiding being overloaded with sadness. After the earthquake, we saw the survivors showing great dignity, the rescuers working hard to save lives, and people all over the world including Hong Kong donating generously. It is clear that the human race is born determined to live and ready to help one another. This is a good reflection of the other aspect of Nature, that of "life". I hope that we all carefully preserve our caring attitude towards fellow human beings and let it prevail in our daily life.

On the subject of earthquake, I would like to talk about tectonic plates. The fundamental cause of the Sichuan earthquake was the collision between the Indian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. When energy accumulates beyond certain threshold values, earthquakes occur and the energy is released to become tremors on the Earth's surface. Where the tremors hit population centres, many get killed or hurt in collapsed houses. In this sense, the collision of tectonic plates is "evil".

But the same collision was responsible for the uplifting of the Tibetan Plateau and the formation of the Himalayan mountain range. When warm moist air from the Indian Ocean goes north and runs into this blockage, it turns eastward to become the south-west monsoon in summer. The monsoon brings water vapour to southern China, which therefore escapes the fate of becoming a desert (our latitude is the same as deserts in Arabia and the Sahara). For the same reason, the Chang Jiang (Yangtse River) and Huang He (Yellow River) watersheds have been blessed with sufficient rain to support agriculture and civilization, and thus the growth of the Chinese race. From this perspective, the collision of the tectonic plates is a "benevolent" event.

Nature is always at the same time the source of life and the cause of death. There is indeed no point in labelling it as benevolent or evil from only the point of view of human beings. As a part of Nature, we should gladly share this unique opportunity of being alive with the diverse species on Earth. We should also respectfully recognize the capability of Nature to kill, which would require us to understand the laws of Nature through science and then take actions to stay out of harm's way.

Taking earthquakes as an example, since we cannot predict exactly when and where earthquakes will occur, we are left with two options. One is to build houses strong enough to stand earthquakes indicated by historical records and the data from modern monitoring equipment. The other is to stop people settling in earthquake-prone areas. The common theme between the two approaches is that we act in a way recognizing the forces of Nature. To live as part of Nature, there is perhaps no other better way.

CY Lam

Leaving sadness behind

From 19 May to 21 May, the country mourned the great loss of lives in the Sichuan earthquake. Today let us leave the sadness behind and resume working hard for the future.

Life by its nature includes both "living" and "dying". The earthquake reminds us that dying is inevitable and therefore that we should appreciate the great value of being alive. Everyday, we should be grateful for being alive, care about people around us and do our jobs properly so as to contribute to the collective welfare of the world.

On the 19th, Observatory staff stood in silence in honour of the dead in the earthquake. In the silence, a Magpie appeared on the lawn, worked its way up the branches, eventually reaching its nest high up on the mast for aerials. To me, it was reminding us of the never-ending story of Life and encouraging us to live our own lives fully.

Indeed in the small wood within the Observatory ground, there are endless stories to be told about the working of Life.

A pair of Black-eared Kites built a nest this year and successfully raised a chick. It is starting to exercise its wings but is as yet unable to fly. A resident of Hillwood Road recently sent me a couple of photographs; I am happy to share one with you. I would like to thank her for alerting us about the breeding effort, so that we were able to minimize human disturbance to the birds. Last year, we were not aware of it. There were too much disturbance such that the eggs were abandoned, which was a great pity. Life is indeed very fragile and needs a lot of care.

Furthermore, the flowering trees in the wood at the Observatory are very impressive this year, most probably because of the prolonged cold spell earlier this year. Since winter felt truly like winter, spring does look like spring in the old days, with beautiful blossoms everywhere. The Flame of the Forest Tree is now in full blossom and the red mantle fully explains why the tree is so named. A bird¡¦s eye view photograph is attached, to show the wonderful view.

Every year, typhoons and rainstorms cause some degree of damage to birds and trees. But they also bring the rain-water which is so essential to Life. Nature is always both positive and negative.

I hope that we would not let one single disaster lead us to see only the negative. We must remind ourselves of the joy of having a great diversity of life-forms on Earth. Being alive is happiness itself.

May the dead in the Sichuan earthquake lie in peace and the living stand tall in embracing the future.

CY Lam

The 12 May Earthquake

The powerful earthquake in Sichuan on 12 May was felt in Hong Kong, some 1450 kilometres away. According to our records, no previous earthquakes felt in Hong Kong had an epicentre more distant than this one.

The epicentre of the initial great shock was located near Dujiangyan City and Wolong. In the last couple of days, aftershocks continued and their epicentres tended to be located to the north-east of this initial location. Some of them were getting close to the border between Sichuan and Gansu. The details are given in the latest press releases issued by the Hong Kong Observatory as well as the dedicated webpage.

Weather forecasts are very important to the rescue operation. The earthquake took place at 2:28 p.m. The China Meteorological Administration issued its first special meteorological bulletin for the disaster area at 3:00 p.m. This was an incredibly fast response, which reflected how much weather forecasters cared about the people, how effective their professional operation was and how well-prepared they were.

Hong Kong Observatory colleagues send our salutes to our meteorological counterparts in the mainland. At the same time, we remind ourselves that we too have to plan well ahead so that science could be applied effectively to save lives in the face of natural hazards. This is what motivates us at the Observatory to work hard all the time.

We feel very sorry for those who lost their lives. We sincerely hope that rescue would reach those in need soon and that life would resume normal before long.

CY Lam